Probability of getting event currency

Discussion in 'Players' Corner' started by viktor402, Dec 29, 2022.

Dear forum reader,

if you’d like to actively participate on the forum by joining discussions or starting your own threads or topics, please log into the game first. If you do not have a game account, you will need to register for one. We look forward to your next visit! CLICK HERE
  1. viktor402

    viktor402 User

    Hello everyone,

    As you may or may not have read in my in my previous forum thread!, I am very curious about the probabilities to get event currency per flight time. There is some information in this forum post but it is not very extensive. I have done research by carefully registering how many event tokens I got from each fleet of planes to then be able to calculate the probability of getting an event drop from that flight time. I will first present the results, and for the interested reader, I will also explain my methodology, and the hurdles I have encountered afterwards.

    First of all it should be noted that this forum thread states the following:
    However, in my research I have found that this must be wrong. If you're interested in why, read the part of my post under the results.
    This is why I have grouped the probabilities (in percent) per original flight time (before tuning). I also have only tested planes in between 4 and 24 hours as I do not own any shorter passenger planes. So without further ado, here are my results:

    Original Flight TimeProbability of dropping event currency
    4 Hours10 %
    6 Hours15 %
    8 Hours20 %
    10 Hours25 %
    12 Hours30 %
    16 Hours40 %
    18 Hours45 %
    24 Hours60 %
    Interestingly, it looks like every 2 hours adds 5% to the probability of dropping event currency.

    Methodology & Hurdles:

    I First started by collecting data purely on flight time. Meaning I recorded the data of my 8 hour fleet which is for example a mix of untuned 8 hours and 12 hour planes that were tuned 4 times. The same held true for my 6.4 hour fleet which is a mix of 4 x tuned 10 hour planes and 3 x tuned 8 hour planes. What I quickly noticed was that the 5.2 hour fleet had a significantly higher drop rate than both the 4 hour and the 6 hour planes. This could not have been a statistical deviation after I had collected the data on 1500 planes. Thus I began to wonder. Maybe my initial assumption was incorrect. I started separating the fleets by original flight time as well. For the 6.4 hour fleet I saw after a 1000 planes had been processed that it indeed split up into a part with 20% drop rate, the 3 x tuned 8 hours and a part with a 25% drop prate, the 4 x tuned 10 hour planes. I saw the same thing even more clearly for the 8 hour planes, since there is a bigger gap between 8 hours that have not been tuned and 12 hours that are fully tuned. And the same was also visible with other flight times like for example 16 hour planes and 4 x tuned 24 hour planes, or 6 hour planes and fully tuned 4 hour planes. Everything seems to point in the direction that event currency is based on the original flight time.

    For my methodology, I carefully wrote down the current amount of event tokens, made sure I only landed planes of the same flight time, after the discovery described above I started also noting down their original flight time. However, to still stay unbiased I also compiled the results by instead looking at the actual flight time. But these results still didn't make sense. Faster planes like 5.2 hours still yielded way more tokens than 6 hour planes, and the same could be said about 6.4 hour planes which yielded more than 8 hour planes (although this effect was lesser since this also consisted of tuned 8 hours).

    To minimize statistical errors I did my experiments on multiple days with multiple runs for each fleet. I also made sure that there were at least 1000 planes in each dataset. That way we can be sure that most statistical fluctuations have been averaged out. The results obviously weren't exactly a rounded number like in the tables, but all results were ±0.5% around this number. Because it split so beautifully in segments of 5% extra drop rate per 2 hours of flight time, I took the liberty of round of the numbers.

    It should also be noted that concerning the following comment from this forum thread:
    This does indeed seem true. For example sending 6 hour planes 4 times (which is technically possible in 24 hours) yields a drop rate of 15% * 4 = 60%. Or sending 8 hour planes 3 times gives 20% * 3 = 60%. Both are the same as the drop rate for 24 hour planes.

    Ending note:
    I hope this helps you with building your fleet if you would like to try and optimize the event currency gained per hangar slot. If anyone would be so inclined to do their own tests, you're more than welcome to and report under this thread.
    The original post mentions flight time ranges. Are this flight time ranges every 2 hours (thus planes from 6 min to 2 hours have the same drop rate) or does it scale per level range. It could be interesting still to test this using 1 hour and 2 hour planes. However, this is not possible for me as I do not own such planes.

    Thanks for taking the time to read this all and have a nice day!
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2022
  2. gotuzil49

    gotuzil49 User

    You are a genius bro, thanks!
    viktor402 likes this.
  3. yes